Pilot Point ISD got a peek at what might be coming, not with a crystal ball, but with a new demographic study from a new firm.
The new firm, School District Strategies, shared its evaluation of the growth not only of Pilot Point but also the surrounding area and what that could mean for the district in coming years.
“This fall, the enrollment has continued to climb—1,727 in October is another record high for the district, so you can see five consecutive years of enrollment growth for the district,” Director of Demographic Research Brent Alexander said.
In its three-year evaluation of enrollment growth, SDS showed Pilot Point having a 13.1% growth rate, with Aubrey experiencing 44% growth in that period, Celina showing 58.5% and Prosper having a 45.3% growth rate.
Tioga ISD and Valley View ISD both showed negative growth, with Tioga showing -5.9% and VVISD at -9.8%.
The firm also pulled Texas Education Agency data regarding transfer information.
For the 2024-25 year, of the students who live in Pilot Point ISD’s boundaries but attend other districts, 99 were enrolled at Tioga, 35 at Valley View, 21 in Aubrey, 12 in Prosper and 11 in Sanger.
For transfers in, 17 came from Denton ISD and 16 were from Aubrey ISD.
Looking at the averages of home types and projected developments, which includes at least 29,000 single- family lots planned with more likely on the horizon, SDS projects that there could be from 276 to 472 more students within three years, 457 to 965 within five years and 1,100 to 3,562 in 10 years.
The variability relies on several factors, including the housing market.
“It’s been a really interesting year,” Alexander said. “It’s really been an interesting time to be talking about the housing market, because for the first time since about 2010, we’re technically in a housing recession in DFW.”
The growth patterns still show that Pilot Point is poised to keep growing, with the rate being the main question in Alexander’s mind.
“You’re looking at potentially a 7 to 10% annual growth rate,” Alexander said. “This has already happened in Aubrey. It’s already happened in Celina. It’s already happened in Prosper, where they were 1,700, 1,800 students and they’re 4,700 students a decade later. You all are teeing up to follow the same path that they have.”
SDS also provided a view of campus projections versus capacity for the low growth rate, moderate growth rate and high growth rate models.
The board has a special meeting scheduled for Dec. 1 to hear from Hilltop Securities about a look at bond capacity based on the demographic study.
The PPISD board also heard an explanation of the teacher incentive allotment.
“It’s a statewide program that the purpose is to help recruit, retain and reward exceptional classroom teachers and overall making impacts on student achievement,” said Jaren Mercer, the district’s coordinator of federal programs and instructional support. “We look at it as a way to honor the skill and dedication and results that the teachers are bringing.”
He added that a local committee weighed in on the parameters for PPISD’s TIA program.
“We are implementing the system, and we’re capturing all the data to then submit to the state for them to send us the … money to provide to the teachers in year three,” Mercer said.
Mercer also gave a detailed breakdown of how the scores will be derived.
PPISD CFO Brittany Floyd also presented the district’s FIRST rating, which was a 96 for the 2024-25 school year.
“We did lose two points from last year, and that was on [the indicator] that has to do with our debt … to asset ratio,” she said. “During ‘23-24, we were still working on the transportation center and all of the upgrades that we did on the campuses, so those assets were not on the books at that time, so it should kind of equal back out next year.”
